Quantitative Modellierung (QM-C2) at Universität Stuttgart

Flashcards and summaries for Quantitative Modellierung (QM-C2) at the Universität Stuttgart

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Study with flashcards and summaries for the course Quantitative Modellierung (QM-C2) at the Universität Stuttgart

Exemplary flashcards for Quantitative Modellierung (QM-C2) at the Universität Stuttgart on StudySmarter:

What is decision making?

Exemplary flashcards for Quantitative Modellierung (QM-C2) at the Universität Stuttgart on StudySmarter:

Elements of Decisions

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Goals to be achieved

Exemplary flashcards for Quantitative Modellierung (QM-C2) at the Universität Stuttgart on StudySmarter:

The decision maker

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Courses of action

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States of nature

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The preference or value system

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Payoff

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Opportunity loss table

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Decision Analysis

Divide and Conquer orientation

Exemplary flashcards for Quantitative Modellierung (QM-C2) at the Universität Stuttgart on StudySmarter:

Heuristics used for decisions involving multiple objectives

Exemplary flashcards for Quantitative Modellierung (QM-C2) at the Universität Stuttgart on StudySmarter:

Factors affecting which strategies people employ

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Exemplary flashcards for Quantitative Modellierung (QM-C2) at the Universität Stuttgart on StudySmarter:

Quantitative Modellierung (QM-C2)

What is decision making?

• Decision making is an integral part of management planning, organizing, controlling, and motivationg processes ... in which the decision maker selects one strategy (course of action) over others depending on some criteria, such as utility, sales, costs, rate of return, etc.

• It is used whenever an organization or an individual faces a problem of decision making, or is dissatisfied with existing decisions, or when alternative selection is specified.

• Decision making is an integral part of management planning, organizing, controlling, and motivationg processes ... in which the decision maker selects one strategy (course of action) over others depending on some criteria, such as utility, sales, costs, rate of return, etc.

• It is used whenever an organization or an individual faces a problem of decision making, or is dissatisfied with existing decisions, or when alternative selection is specified.

Quantitative Modellierung (QM-C2)

Elements of Decisions

  • Goals to be achieved

  • The dicision maker

  • Courses of action

  • States of nature

  • The Preference or value system

  • Payoff

  • Opportunity loss table

Quantitative Modellierung (QM-C2)

Goals to be achieved

objectives which the decision maker wants to achieve by his actions

Quantitative Modellierung (QM-C2)

The decision maker

refers to an individual or an organization

Quantitative Modellierung (QM-C2)

Courses of action

also called „action” or „decision alternatives”. 

They are under control of decision maker

Quantitative Modellierung (QM-C2)

States of nature

exhaustive list of possible future events. 

Decision maker has no dire control over the occurence of particular event.

Quantitative Modellierung (QM-C2)

The preference or value system

criteria that the decision maker uses in making a choice of the best course of action

Quantitative Modellierung (QM-C2)

Payoff

effectiveness associated with specified combination of a course of action and state of nature. Also known as profits or conditional values

Quantitative Modellierung (QM-C2)

Opportunity loss table

incurred due to failure of not adopting most favorable course of action or strategy. Found separately for each state of nature

Quantitative Modellierung (QM-C2)

Decision Analysis

Divide and Conquer orientation

„Involves the decomposition of a decision problem into a set of smaller (and, hopefully, easier to handle) problems. After each smaller problem has been dealt with separately, decision analysis provides a formal mechanism for integrating the results so that a course of action can be provisionally selected” (Goodwin and Wright 2014).

Quantitative Modellierung (QM-C2)

Heuristics used for decisions involving multiple objectives

• The recognition heuristic • The minimalist strategy • Take the last • The lexicographic strategy • The semi-lexicographic strategy • Elimination by aspects • Sequential decision making: satisficing • Reason-based choice

Quantitative Modellierung (QM-C2)

Factors affecting which strategies people employ

• Time available to make a decision • The effort that a given strategy will involve • Knowledge about the environment • The importance of making an accurate decision • Need to justify the decision to others • Desire to minimize the conflict • Decoy effects • Unique attributes • Emotion • Justifying already-made choices • Partitioning the total cost of an item

• Time available to make a decision • The effort that a given strategy will involve • Knowledge about the environment • The importance of making an accurate decision • Need to justify the decision to others • Desire to minimize the conflict • Decoy effects • Unique attributes • Emotion • Justifying already-made choices • Partitioning the total cost of an item

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