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Credit Analysis - Capacity
Expected cash flow of the borrower and how related to the instalment of loa
Conclusion: State Guarantees & Bank Lending (pros & cons)
PRO | CON |
State loan guarantees reduce credit loss directly (“buffer” function), even better than collateral does: | Contrary to normal collateral, which gives borrowers “skin in the game”, government loan guarantees do not mitigate pre-contractual private information (screening function) nor post-contractual moral hazard (incentive function) |
Credit supply ↑ | Credit risk ↑ and is shifted to the government |
Loan volume ↑and interest rates↓ |
|
Lending by Government-Owned Banks / Empirical Study
Loan contract elements include:
COVID-19 & Credit Analysis -> Dimensions Impact
Capital
Asset value on balance sheet↓(e.g. fixed assets, inventory, accounts receivable)
---> residual equity ↓
Borrower Incentives - Guaranteed loans
Not worried to lose capital -> therefore low incentives for a high effort
--> negative selection effect - attract even riskier borrowers bc no collateral to lose and no credit analysis is performed on behalf of the bank
Financial Intermediaries
FIs on the periphery
--> specialist FIs which are on the periphery
E.g. pawnbrokers & payday lenders (provide short-term loans to consumers) / loan sharks and other information lenders in the economy
Role of gov-owned banks during the last financial crisis
Loan Structure of Banks (US & Switzerland)
Hedging credit risk with swaps (off-bs management)
Credit Default Swap
Firms’ participation in the COVID-19 loan programme - Paper
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