MM3: Risk Aware Decisions at Karlsruher Institut Für Technologie | Flashcards & Summaries

Lernmaterialien für MM3: Risk aware decisions an der Karlsruher Institut für Technologie

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TESTE DEIN WISSEN

Name the three different categories of disruptions

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TESTE DEIN WISSEN
  1. Meteorite Big with huge impact but relative slow probability
  2. Butterfly Medium events that cause disruptions
  3. Common deviations Often occurring but little impact
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TESTE DEIN WISSEN

Why is the modern supply chain vulnerable?

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TESTE DEIN WISSEN
  • Globalisation
    • Low-cost country sourcing
    • Outsourcing
  • Lean Management
    • Just in time/sequence
    • Supply base rationalisation
  • Information availability
    • Vendor managed inventory
    • Integrated supply
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TESTE DEIN WISSEN

What is the foundation of the supply chain performance?

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TESTE DEIN WISSEN

The objectives for the supply chain are derived from out of the overall business strategy

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TESTE DEIN WISSEN

Summarise the impact of Risk

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TESTE DEIN WISSEN
  • Difficult to learn risk out of experience
  • Realisation of risk has massive impact on economy 
  • Difficult to predict Risk for the future
  • Modern supply chain is globally spread and highly efficient
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TESTE DEIN WISSEN

Name different classes of triggers

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TESTE DEIN WISSEN

Increasing in severity and frequency

  • Disturbance
  • Disruption
  • Disaster

Not yet realised trigger

  • Hazard
Lösung ausblenden
TESTE DEIN WISSEN

Name different supply chain conditions

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TESTE DEIN WISSEN
  • Robustness
    • Model Robustness (only few changes in model to mitigate but higher cost)
    • Solution Robustness (major changes in model but optimal cost)
  • Resilience
  • Vulnerability
  • Exposure
  • Agility
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TESTE DEIN WISSEN

What are the steps in risk management?

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TESTE DEIN WISSEN
  1. Awareness
  2. Identification
  3. Assessment
  4. Management
  5. Monitoring/Control
  6. Learn
  7. Start at 1. 
Lösung ausblenden
TESTE DEIN WISSEN

What are the steps in resilience management

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TESTE DEIN WISSEN
  1. Organisation and processes
  2. Vulnerability/Resilience
  3. Exposition
  4. Monitor/Control
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TESTE DEIN WISSEN

What are the uncertainties in risk management?

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TESTE DEIN WISSEN
  • Validity of information
    • Status uncertain
    • Fast changing situation
  • Availability of information
    • Collection
    • Evaluation
    • Sharing
  • Correctness of information
    • Degree of relevance
    •  Degree of reliability
Lösung ausblenden
TESTE DEIN WISSEN

What biases is risk management exposed to?

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TESTE DEIN WISSEN
  • Event based analysis ➔ Definition bias
    • Event is not the only reason but only the trigger
  • Probabilistic analysis ➔ Probability Trap
    • Black swan, not foreseen but afterwards easily explainable event which is not represented in analysis. 
  • Effects on decision efficiency ➔ Assignment bias
    • Stepwise management is not efficient and wholistic
Lösung ausblenden
TESTE DEIN WISSEN

What are quantitative risk measures?

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TESTE DEIN WISSEN
  • Deviation
    • Variance
    • Standard deviation
  • Downside risk
    • Value at Risk
    • Conditional VaR
  • Insurance
    • Premium
    • Load
  • Event Based
    • Probability
    • Severity
  • Time-Based
    • Time to survive
    • Time to recover
Lösung ausblenden
TESTE DEIN WISSEN

What measures can be taken to improve TTS

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TESTE DEIN WISSEN
  • Pro-Active
    • Flexible options
    • Robust design
    • Resilient planning
  • Reactive
    • Disruption management
    • Contingency planning
    • Crisis management
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Q:

Name the three different categories of disruptions

A:
  1. Meteorite Big with huge impact but relative slow probability
  2. Butterfly Medium events that cause disruptions
  3. Common deviations Often occurring but little impact
Q:

Why is the modern supply chain vulnerable?

A:
  • Globalisation
    • Low-cost country sourcing
    • Outsourcing
  • Lean Management
    • Just in time/sequence
    • Supply base rationalisation
  • Information availability
    • Vendor managed inventory
    • Integrated supply
Q:

What is the foundation of the supply chain performance?

A:

The objectives for the supply chain are derived from out of the overall business strategy

Q:

Summarise the impact of Risk

A:
  • Difficult to learn risk out of experience
  • Realisation of risk has massive impact on economy 
  • Difficult to predict Risk for the future
  • Modern supply chain is globally spread and highly efficient
Q:

Name different classes of triggers

A:

Increasing in severity and frequency

  • Disturbance
  • Disruption
  • Disaster

Not yet realised trigger

  • Hazard
Mehr Karteikarten anzeigen
Q:

Name different supply chain conditions

A:
  • Robustness
    • Model Robustness (only few changes in model to mitigate but higher cost)
    • Solution Robustness (major changes in model but optimal cost)
  • Resilience
  • Vulnerability
  • Exposure
  • Agility
Q:

What are the steps in risk management?

A:
  1. Awareness
  2. Identification
  3. Assessment
  4. Management
  5. Monitoring/Control
  6. Learn
  7. Start at 1. 
Q:

What are the steps in resilience management

A:
  1. Organisation and processes
  2. Vulnerability/Resilience
  3. Exposition
  4. Monitor/Control
Q:

What are the uncertainties in risk management?

A:
  • Validity of information
    • Status uncertain
    • Fast changing situation
  • Availability of information
    • Collection
    • Evaluation
    • Sharing
  • Correctness of information
    • Degree of relevance
    •  Degree of reliability
Q:

What biases is risk management exposed to?

A:
  • Event based analysis ➔ Definition bias
    • Event is not the only reason but only the trigger
  • Probabilistic analysis ➔ Probability Trap
    • Black swan, not foreseen but afterwards easily explainable event which is not represented in analysis. 
  • Effects on decision efficiency ➔ Assignment bias
    • Stepwise management is not efficient and wholistic
Q:

What are quantitative risk measures?

A:
  • Deviation
    • Variance
    • Standard deviation
  • Downside risk
    • Value at Risk
    • Conditional VaR
  • Insurance
    • Premium
    • Load
  • Event Based
    • Probability
    • Severity
  • Time-Based
    • Time to survive
    • Time to recover
Q:

What measures can be taken to improve TTS

A:
  • Pro-Active
    • Flexible options
    • Robust design
    • Resilient planning
  • Reactive
    • Disruption management
    • Contingency planning
    • Crisis management
MM3: Risk aware decisions

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